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Initially published on Medium — December 31, 2019
I did this last year and had a ton of fun. Excited to do this again. If you want to read my predictions for last year, click here.
- Esports (and gaming in general) in the West are now a critical part of pop culture. Esports viewership in 2020 will continue to break records and be the best year yet.
- In 2019, we saw the streaming wars between Twitch, YouTube, Facebook, and Mixer heat up for individual creators. I expect there to be a shift in strategy towards structuring deals around leagues, tournaments, and teams.
- League, tournament, and team deals will attract even more competition to the streaming wars. Specifically, the bigger media players (AT&T, ESPN, Disney, etc.) will also try to structure deals.
- YouTube, Twitch, Mixer, and Facebook will continue to announce signings of tier-1/2 individual streamers, but their focus will start to shift towards broader deals.
- Twitch and YouTube will continue to win for individual streamers. Mixer and Facebook will fail to gain significant market share in 2020. The streamers that switch to Mixer/FB (with the exception of a few) will struggle to retain high viewership numbers. Proving the power is with the platform vs. creator.
- League of Legends (Riot) & Fortnite (Epic) have been planting seeds throughout 2019 to leverage their IP as a metaverse and platform. In 2020, we will see both invest heavily in building out pure platform plays.
- It will become very difficult for multiplayer games to break through to ‘Fortnite’ levels of success in 2020 without partnering with a major AAA publisher. M&A will heat up, and we will see the biggest players invest heavily in smaller studios.
- This will be one of the toughest years on esports organizations to date. Most teams raised in 2018/2019 with 18–24 months of runway, and will be back in the market. A lot of investors have already placed their bets, leaving limited options for additional capital.
- As player salaries continue to rise across the industry with revenue still lagging behind — a correction is imminent. However, teams that make it through the correction will be even stronger.
- I expect a lot of tier-2 and tier-3 organizations, and maybe a couple of tier-1 organizations will either merge or completely dissolve. This will have ripple effects across the ecosystem as tier-2/3 organizations are a critical component.
- As organizations scramble to reach profitability, teams will establish a clear identity and strategy. e.g. agency model, media company, or purely competitive.
- In 2020, I expect at least one tier-1 esports organization to sell a majority stake to a traditional sports organization or a Fortune 500 endemic company.
- Overwatch League will largely be considered a failure amongst team owners and investors given the high upfront investment that everyone committed. I expect 2020 to be the year that Overwatch switches to free-to-play in an effort to increase the player base (and audience size).
- After franchising, Activision will invest heavily in trying to make sure that Call of Duty League is ‘successful.’ However, I fear that it was set-up for failure from the beginning given historical viewership numbers and the current game state.
- Local venues and events for these Activision Leagues (CDL/OWL) will struggle outside of major geographies. I don’t know if esports will ever be ready for consistent local market events.
- Rocket League, with the help of Epic, will become a tier-1 esport in 2020. It is the perfect mix of: super easy to watch, brand-friendly, and fun gameplay.